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Dec cotton yarn imports may rise 3.81% m-o-m to 177kt

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 1. imported cotton yarn arrivals to China assessment

Cotton yarn imports to China in Dec are estimated at 177kt, up 19.33% y-o-y and 3.81% m-o-m. Considering that some Pakistani cotton yarn is not calculated into the customs’ data, the cotton yarn imports shown by the customs may be 20kt less than actual imports, and the cotton yarn imports of China customs is predicted at about 15.7kt.

According to foreign shipment data in Nov, arrivals of Vietnamese cotton yarn are estimated less at 75.6kt in Dec; that of Indian cotton yarn at 28.3kt; Pakistani cotton yarn at 29kt, Uzbekistani cotton yarn at 20kt; Indonesian cotton yarn at 8kt, Taiwanese cotton yarn at 6kt and that of other regions and countries at 10.3kt.

2. Traders' reflection

Note: Over 30 enterprises are surveyed, covering over 50% of cotton yarn imports.

Major traders and L/C issuing companies expected much more arrivals of imported cotton yarn in Dec.

3. imported yarn stocks and supply and demand outlook in Jan
In Dec, arrivals of imported cotton yarn are estimated at 177kt or so. Cotton yarn price kept stable in Dec, as market confidence recovered amid low inventory. Especially cotton price moved up in the end of Dec, market sentiment turned bullish and restocking for rigid demand and for speculation both appeared. The sales of traders improved and inventory declined.

In terms of supply and demand, cotton yarn market in Dec still saw surplus. The sources were adequate and the prices were hard to move up. Offers of traders increased 500yuan/mt, but in fact the trading price only rose 100-300yuan/mt. As spot cotton yarn price climbed up, traders gained more profits. However, the forward imported cotton yarn price was higher than spot one after rising 5-10cents/kg, and Chinese traders were difficult to place orders. In addition, the cotton yarn spinners were in poor situation. Cotton futures rebounded about 1500yuan/mt, but cotton yarn spot price only increased 200-500yuan/mt, which meant poorer profits of spinners. Foreign spinners, taking those in Vietnam as an example, raised prices continually as US cotton price moved up, and the sales were still under pressure. If cotton yarn price cannot increase following cotton, spinners will stay burdened.

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