Cotton yarn imports to China in Sep are estimated at 157kt, down 6.5% y-o-y and 15.4% m-o-m. Sep cotton yarn imports are expected to rise with peak season coming. Considering that some Pakistani cotton yarn was not calculated into the customs statistics, thus the cotton yarn imports from customs may reach about 134kt.
According to the shipments in overseas market in Aug, the imports from Vietnam is estimated at 70kt considering more shipment in H2 Aug than in H1 Sep, from India 15.7kt due to large spread between forward and spot ones, from Pakistan about 28kt (the customs statistics may show at 5-8kt), from Uzbekistan 13kt, from Indonesia 10kt, from Taiwan 8kt and from other regions and countries 11.5kt.
2. Traders' reflection
Note: Over 30 enterprises are surveyed, covering over 50% of cotton yarn imports.
Major traders and L/C issuing companies which were surveyed expected more arrivals of imported cotton yarn in Sep.
3. imported yarn stocks and supply and demand outlook in Sep
Stocks of imported cotton yarn declined somewhat. Although overall supply exceeded demand on cotton yarn market in Sep and cotton yarn price stayed weak, sales of traders turned better on the month. However, as there is a large amount of imported cotton yarn arrivals in Sep, the stocks may not reduce obviously. Arrivals in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu in Sep is expected to rise significantly while those in Guangdong may decline much. After National Day holiday, the sales of traders improved apparently, while the price keeps weak, especially in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. At present, cotton yarn market still sees excessive supply.
According to customs data, in Jan-Aug 2019, cotton yarn imports totaled 1256.5kt, down 90kt or 6.55% on the year without considering that some Pakistan cotton yarn was not calculated. China imported about 98kt Pakistani cotton yarn in Jan-Aug, while in the same period last year, it was 244kt. According to Pakistan customs data during Oct 2018 to Jul 2019, CCFGroup estimated that in Jan-Aug 2019, China imported 210kt of Pakistani cotton yarn. Comparatively, in China’s customs data, cotton yarn imports from Pakistan were about 110kt less than that in Pakistan’s customs data. Therefore, in Jan-Aug, cotton yarn imports of China reached about 1366.5kg, slightly up 1.6% from 1345kt in 2018. In conclusion, even though cotton yarn market is bleak in 2019, but the imports during Jan to Sep will remain stable.