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Jul cotton yarn imports may decrease 9.52% m-o-m to 133kt

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 1. imported cotton yarn arrivals to China assessment

Cotton yarn imports to China in Jul are estimated at 133kt, down 32.06% y-o-y and 9.52% m-o-m. In 2018, cotton yarn imports were pulled up by ZCE cotton futures, much higher than that in previous years, while in 2019, with slack market and season, traders mostly replenished cautiously.

According to the shipments in overseas market in Jun, the arrivals of imported cotton yarn in Jul are predicted to decline on the year, especially those from India. The imports from Vietnam is estimated at 65kt, from India 12kt, from Pakistan 19.6kt, from Uzbekistan 11kt, from Indonesia 9kt, from Taiwan 6kt and from other regions and countries 10.4kt.

2. Traders' reflection

Note: Over 30 enterprises are surveyed, covering over 50% of cotton yarn imports.

Major traders and L/C issuing companies expected less arrivals of imported cotton yarn in Jul, especially those from India.

3. imported yarn stocks and supply and demand outlook in Jul
In Jul, imported cotton yarn stocks were at a large amount. It showed a “V” shape trend. Spurred by the favorable news about G20 Summit, the stocks were consumed quickly, but the market soon restored to be quiet. Downstream grey fabric inventory kept accumulating and the destocking remained slowly. The capital pressure on fabric plants was much higher than that in previous years. Thus, fabric plants in Guangdong, Shandong, Hebei, and Shaoxing cut or suspended production in general and purchased cotton yarn negatively. Jul was traditional slack season. Apart from less arrivals, the sales also moved slowly. As a result, overall stocks increased.

The stocks in the ports are estimated at about 99.7kt, with 39.8kt in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, 38.7kt in Guangdong, and 12kt in North China. Aug arrivals of imported cotton yarn are expected to increase due to the expectation of market players to peak season. The supply of imported cotton yarn will be adequate in later market, but it is noteworthy that structural issues exist. China hardly imports Indian cotton yarn due to its high price (especially the one for weaving), so Indian cotton yarn for weaving may see structural gap.

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