Arrivals in Jan 2019 may be at 116,000mt, down by 21.9% month-on-month and down by 36.7% year-on-year. Arrivals in Jan is expected to dro evidently affected by the Spring Festival holidays. Clearance volume of traders will dro in the second half of January to save costs, but there are many cases of clearance delays in Feb. Forward cargos may be around Mid-Feb to Mar, so there will be post-holiday pressure peak after end Feb. Overall cost will decrease in line with improving efficiency of imported cotton yarn market. Demand time and arrival time may be closer and the pressure will concentrate.
Vietnamese cotton yarn imports reached 37,000mt, with 24,000mt of Indian one, 21,000mt of Pakistani one, 0.9 million tons of Uzbekistani one, 0.8 million tons of Indonesian one, 0.7 million tons of Taiwan one, and 11,000mt of other countries and regions in Jan 2019. Vietnamese cotton yarn arrivals witnessed larger decrement in Dec. In addition, clearance is expected to decrease in the second half of January due to the Spring Festival holidays, but there are many cases of clearance delays after the Spring Festival holidays.
Sample enterprise survey and evaluation
Note: The survey is a combination of telephone research and WeChat research, with nearly 30 sample enterprises, involving more than 50% of cotton yarn imports.
87% respondents believe that arrivals in Nov decreased month-on-month, and the survey results match the foreign export data. The main reason is that there is a big difference in Vietnamese cotton yarn exports to China in the first half of January. According to the survey results, Vietnamese arrivals in the second half of January will dro evidently.
import cotton yarn inventory and supply and demand estimation in Feb
Shipment and replenishment of pre-holiday downstream market were tolerable in Jan, and imported cotton yarn inventory decreased. Traders did not sell products, but arrivals increased, and inventory of traders showed uptrend. Traders had large orders before the Spring Festival holidays and arrivals maybe mostly in mid-Mar to Feb. Supply pressure will be formed in end Feb and early Mar. Therefore, as for supply, pressure mainly depends on downstream demand. Currently, demand is still uncertain, and traders hold optimistic mood and act cautiously. Sino-US trade negotiations may have a huge impact on cotton supply and demand and market mood. It is suggested to hedge risks by locking exchange rate and cotton futures amid large stocks.