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USDA: February cotton supply and demand estimation

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 This month’s 2018/19 U.S. cotton forecasts include slightly lower production, mill use, and ending stocks. Production is reduced 200,000 bales due to small declines outside the Southeast. Ending stocks and mill use are reduced 100,000 bales each, while exports are unchanged. The forecast for the marketing-year average price received by producers is reduced 2 cents per pound, to a midpoint of 72 cents.


The world 2018/19 cotton supply and demand estimates include lower production and mill use but higher trade and stocks. Production is reduced nearly 300,000 bales, as smaller crops in Turkey, India, Burkina Faso and the United States offset increases in China, Brazil, Pakistan, and Australia. World trade is increased 600,000 bales as higher imports by China, Turkey, and Pakistan more than offset declines in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Exports rose for Brazil, Benin, and India, but fell for Turkey and Burkina Faso. Lower 2017/18 India mill use is largely responsible for a 600,000-bale increase in world 2018/19 beginning stocks. Projected 2018/19 consumption in India is reduced 500,000 bales since December, and is reduced 1 million bales for China. Global use is reduced 2 million bales, with smaller declines in Vietnam, Turkey, and the United States. World 2018/19 ending stocks are now 2.3 million bales above their previous estimate, with a 2.0-million-bale increase for China.

2018/19 Proj. Beginning Stocks Production imports Domestic Use Exports Loss  /2  Ending Stocks
World Dec 80.45 118.74 41.71 125.63 41.73 0.35 73.19
Feb 81.05 118.45 42.31 123.64 42.32 0.36 75.5
United States Dec 4.3 18.59 0.01 3.3 15 0.19 4.4
Feb 4.3 18.39 0.01 3.2 15 0.2 4.3
Total Foreign Dec 76.15 100.15 41.71 122.33 26.73 0.16 68.79
Feb 76.75 100.06 42.3 120.44 27.32 0.16 71.2
  Major Exporters 4/ Dec 26.15 54.91 2.32 34.3 22.57 0.02 26.5
Feb 26.75 54.77 2.35 33.8 23.22 0.02 26.83
    Central Asia 5/ Dec 2.72 5.47 3/ 3.61 2.21 0 2.37
Feb 2.72 5.59 3/ 3.61 2.26 0 2.44
    Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ Dec 1.8 5.86 3/ 0.14 5.45 0 2.07
Feb 1.83 5.58 3/ 0.14 5.47 0 1.8
    S. Hemis 7/ Dec 12.72 15.51 0.22 4.57 10.16 0.01 13.7
Feb 12.73 15.98 0.27 4.57 10.61 0.01 13.79
      Australia Dec 2.94 2.5 3/ 0.04 3.6 0 1.81
Feb 2.94 2.6 3/ 0.04 3.6 0 1.9
      Brazil Dec 8.66 11 0.08 3.5 5.8 0 10.43
Feb 8.66 11.4 0.13 3.5 6.2 0 10.48
    India Dec 8.68 27.5 1.6 25.3 4.4 0 8.08
Feb 9.23 27 1.6 24.8 4.5 0 8.53
  Major importers 8/ Dec 47.91 42.23 36.8 83.94 2.84 0.14 40.02
Feb 47.9 42.25 37.36 82.55 2.74 0.14 42.09
    Mexico Dec 0.66 1.73 0.9 1.95 0.6 0.03 0.71
Feb 0.66 1.73 0.85 1.95 0.6 0.03 0.66
    China Dec 38.02 27 7 41.5 0.15 0 30.37
Feb 38.02 27.5 7.5 40.5 0.15 0 32.37
    European Union 9/ Dec 0.27 1.66 0.71 0.75 1.53 0.05 0.32
Feb 0.27 1.69 0.7 0.74 1.55 0.05 0.31
    Turkey Dec 1.88 4.3 2.9 7 0.4 0 1.68
Feb 1.88 3.7 3.2 6.8 0.3 0 1.68
    Pakistan Dec 2.83 7.4 2.9 10.6 0.15 0.03 2.36
Feb 2.83 7.5 3 10.6 0.13 0.03 2.58
    Indonesia Dec 0.62 3/ 3.65 3.6 0.01 0 0.66
Feb 0.62 3/ 3.65 3.6 0.01 0 0.66
    Thailand Dec 0.18 3/ 1.18 1.15 0 0.03 0.18
Feb 0.18 3/ 1.18 1.15 0 0.03 0.18
    Bangladesh Dec 1.86 0.14 8.1 8 0 0.01 2.08
Feb 1.86 0.14 8 8 0 0.01 1.98
    Vietnam Dec 1.19 3/ 7.6 7.5 0 0 1.29
Feb 1.19 3/ 7.4 7.3 0 0 1.29

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors.   

2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 

3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 

4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 

5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 

6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 

7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.

8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan.

9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

 

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