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CAI further reduces 2018-19 cotton output estimate

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 The Cotton Association of India (CAI), in its December 2018 estimate of the cotton crop for the 2018-19 season beginning October 1, 2018, has estimated cotton crop for the season at 335 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This is 5.25 lakh bales lower compared to its previous month’s estimate. Crop estimate is reduced for Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana.

“The main reason for reduction in cotton crop is that farmers have uprooted their cotton plants in about 70-80 per cent cotton area due to moisture deficiency due to less rains and as a result of which there is no scope for 3rd and 4th pickings,” CAI president Atul S Ganatra said in a press release.

CAI now expects cotton crop production to be lower by 1.50 lakh bales in Gujarat, 2 lakh bales in Maharashtra, and 2 lakh bales in Telangana, compared to its November 2018 estimate.

As a result, the total cotton supply projected by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to December 2018 is projected at 142.50 lakh bales, including the arrival of 115.97 lakh bales up to December 31, 2018, imports of 3.53 lakh bales up to December 31, 2018, and the opening stock at the beginning of the season estimated by the Committee at 23 lakh bales.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2018 to December at 80 lakh bales while the export shipment of cotton up to December 31, 2018 has been estimated at 17 lakh bales.

Stock at the end of December 2018 is estimated by the CAI at 45.50 lakh bales including 30 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 15.50 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.).

The CAI has also projected yearly Balance Sheet for the cotton season 2018-19 wherin total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. up to September 30, 2019 has been estimated at 385 lakh bales consisting of the opening stock of 23 lakh bales at the beginning of the season, cotton crop for the season estimated at 335 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 27 lakh bales,  which are higher by 12 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s import estimated at 15 lakh bales.

The CAI has estimated domestic consumption of 320 lakh bales which is lower by 4 lakh bales compared to the consumption figure estimated during the last month, while the CAI has estimated exports for the 2018-19 season at 51 lakh bales, which are lower by 18 lakh bales compared to the export of 69 lakh bales estimated during the last year.  The carry-over stock at the end of the 2018-19 season is estimated by the CAI at 14 lakh bales.

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