With the decline in Chinese cotton prices, the competitiveness of Chinese textile mills will be restored in the end, the advantages of imported yarn will gradually weaken, Vietnam, India and Pakistan may experience weakening demand for Chinese imports of cotton yarn to bring pressure on domestic cotton consumption will be reduced. Whether it is domestic consumption to reduce consumption (India and Pakistan) and exports consumption (Vietnam) pulled Chinese cotton imports will lead to reduce cotton stocks outside of China increased its severity will determine how much of the international cotton prices will face down pressure.
From a fundamental perspective, the US Department of Agriculture forecast in February, the sixth consecutive cut global cotton production and consumption. Global production Tiaojian 172 000 101 400 000 package to package, consumption Tiaojian 1.3 million to 109.6 million package package. Since last May, the first release forecast, 2015/16 cumulative annual global cotton production down 9.9 million bales, a decrease of 8.9%, the cumulative consumption down 5.7 million bales, a decrease of 4.9%.
The forecast sharply 调减 cotton consumption in China, India, Pakistan and Brazil, the world's cotton imports are also lowered to 35.1 million bags, since the 2008/09 annual minimum level, mainly due to sharp decline of China's import demand. According to forecasts, China's cotton imports by 50 million bales to 500 million bales. Within four years, China's cotton imports decreased 19.5 million full package, equivalent to approximately US cotton production for the year, and West Africa and Australia. In addition, imports of Pakistan and India were also down 0.4 million bales and 10 million bales. Meanwhile, US cotton exports Diaojian 50 million bales, Brazil, India and Pakistan cotton export volume Tiaojian 10 million bales.
After these adjustments, this year's global cotton ending stocks were 1.2 million reduction package to 104.1 million bags, and inventory outside China region increases, so pressure on the market.